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Imagine you work for a heavy equipment dealer who has customers involved in the coal industry. You want to be able to anticipatebusiness in this sector both short term and long term to inform your ownbusiness strategy. Use this government energy data spreadsheet for coal consumption to answer the following questions:
1. What are 3 observations you make about the historical data? Use one of these observations and provide a brief (two or three sentence) perspective on how that observation might inform your business.
2. Describe any trend and/or seasonality in the historical data.
3. Before running any forecast model, provide a brief analysis of what an appropriate time series forecasting model would be based on the characteristics of the data (from the models described in Chpt 7)
4. Before running any forecast model, provide a brief analysis of what an inappropriate time series forecasting model would be based on the characteristics of the data (from the models described in Chpt 7)
5. Use CB Predictor to run a time series forecaston the data. a. What did CB Predictor choose as the best model? b. What is the MAD for the best model and what does it tell us about the forecast? c. What is the forecasted consumption for the first 6 months in 2016? 6. What is one strength and one weakness of this forecast method for informing your business strategies, generally?
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