QANTAS

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Earlier this year, the troubled airline QANTAS declared a significant redundancy programme. It also failed in an attempt to secure government backing and has been subject to much media speculation about its long term strategy and leadership. Early in 2014, Qantas debt was downgraded by Moody’s, its senior, unsecured rating being reduced to Ba2 (barely above Junk status), with a negative outlook. Qantas has not declared a dividend since 2009.

Over the last 5 years, the share price of the company has fluctuated between just below $1 per share and around $3 per share. However, despite a lack of dividend, since the end of 2013 its share price has risen around 30%.

Share

price

Traded

volumes

Source: Yahoo Finance, 25/8/2014

Assignment

Using publicly available data, analyse Qantas as an investment proposition with particular reference to:

  1. Its share price history and history of traded volumes over the past 5 years, identifying the main causes of its volatility in share price and traded volumes.
  1. A ratio analysis. Undertake a ratio analysis for the company outlining any key trends or danger signals relative to comparable companies.
  1. Its current share price. Do you consider the company over, under or correctly valued? Assess this by valuing the company using several different techniques.

Explain which of the techniques you consider most appropriate for assessing the value of Qantas and why.

  1. Considering all of the above, draw a conclusion on the attractiveness of Qantas as an investment proposition. Include in your analysis a discussion of any key risks that may affect the attractiveness of the company as an investment.
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